The March of Folly in Illinois
In the return of school and sports, common sense ignored over anxiety and fear porn...
A 1984 book titled “March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam” is the perfect metaphor for the coronavirus and the return of sports this fall in Illinois.
In the book, written by Barbara Tuchman, she examines four events in global history and how leaders pursued policies against their self-interests:
A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In this sphere, wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgment acting on experience, common sense and available information, is less operative and more frustrated than it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem so often not to function?
Playing sports in 2020 may not be as historically relevant as the American Revolution, but trying telling that to the thousands of athletes in this state who want to play and are in limbo. We continue to read about ‘surging’ and ‘spiking’ and ‘exploding’ numbers. We watch television reports that fail to provide context, instead manipulate anecdotes to spin narratives that fit mainstream media conventions.
In my first column, I wrote the fall sports situation is about politics and fear, not logic and reason. If logic and reason were driving decisions, the case for the return of school and sports would be an easy one. Districts should offer at a minimum some form of in- person attendance, with a plan to add physical days later in the semester. All sports should be played.
Let’s take a look at data and examine the most recent in Lake County, IL
Based on Gov. Pritzker’s Restore Illinois phasing in plan, here are four statistic public health indicators through Week 28 of the plan:
Four other indicators were also on target, making seven of the eight indicators in line with positive trends. The exception is new cases. That should come as no surprise as testing becomes more readily available and we continue to set high marks for testing each day.
The argument against reopening schools and sports always starts with protecting the ‘health and safety’ of our young people. Yes, we are all in with keeping our kids safe and alive.
The most recent CDC data (through July 15) shows that 33 kids between the ages of 0-15 have died with the coronavirus. That number is 190 when factoring in the 15-24 age range. Compare this to death statistics in a typical year for ages 0-15: 436 for suicide, 4,114 from unintentional incidents such as drowning, and 190 from influenza.
Through July 20, 7,506 people in Illinois have died from the coronavirus, 433 in Lake County. Between July 14-20, five people have died in Lake County. The youngest person was in his mid-60’s.
Every life is precious. But what are we really worried about here? Young people are not dying from the coronavirus. They are not in hospitals on ventilators.
Parents and teachers are rightfully concerned that asymptomatic young people can spread the virus. In Europe, where the virus started sooner than here in the U.S., published studies show that in February, before everyone locked down, the virus penetrated three schools:
despite three introductions of the virus into three primary schools, there appears to have been no further transmission of the virus to other pupils or teaching and non-teaching staff of the schools.
There are common sense guidelines for returning to schools, which some districts are following. Others continue to succumb to fear. I have not spoken to a single parent or student who believed e-learning this spring was anything less than a disaster. Repeated research studies reflect this belief and endorsements from doctors are on the side of children being in the classroom this fall.
Schools provide structure and routine. Sports augment academics with physical and mental health benefits. Kids who participate in extracurricular activity are much better students.
The data reflects that the virus disproportionally effects older people more than younger people. For those under the age of 65, corona is basically an upper respiratory virus. It’s going to be with us for awhile, if not the rest of our lives. So why not start now acting on safe ways to manage it? There is absolutely no way in a country our size that we can completely control it. A vaccine will come, but the activation is uncertain. Why not now co-exist with the virus, and accumulate more data on how to best minimize its impact?
The re-opening of high school sports in border states is encouraging. Even when a state, such as Indiana, delays the start of sports. At least state officials are making a decision. Pro baseball and basketball will be playing before the month is out. If college football announces it is holding a 2020 season, that will be another positive development.
Yet here in Illinois, we remain crippled by indecision. Teacher’s unions are the loudest voice.
What can we do locally? What can we do to protect the future of our young people?
Petitions are one outlet for soft activism. I’d encourage linking to this one on change.org, asking for the return of fall sports.
Continued common sense approaches, free of political ideology, could sway opinion—wear masks, socially distance, etc. Any outbreak at a sports camp will be breathlessly covered by mainstream media as it were the bubonic plague. A drama-less few weeks of activities will help.
Continue to share actual data as opposed to propaganda and fear porn. Do your part to not let anxiety over the unknown—the ‘novel’ coronavirus—win.
Stop the March of Folly here in Illinois.