We roll into December with a total athletics competition blackout in the state of Illinois. Happy Holidays!
Thank goodness for college and pro sports. It’s not easy but they are playing through. Two teams in Santa Clara County, California, were actually forced to flee their home state to continue playing.
In a year of ridiculous virus-caused regulations, that one might be the most laughable.
Plenty of tweets, emails and Zooms this week.
Let’s get on with the latest edition of the TKR mailbag.
We start with a tweet.
The parties involved that have led to the current situation—everyone staying home with no plan on a path forward to play basketball or football—is a failure of leadership across the board.
It’s a failure from the school districts. It’s a failure from the Illinois High School Association. It’s a failure from teachers unions. It’s a failure from politicians at the local and state level.
As we sit here now, in early December, the vice grip wrapped around the throat of athletics is being applied by Governor Pritzker. He has zero incentive to change the labeling (high-risk, medium-risk, low-risk) methods currently in play. Pritzker’s draconian lockdown strategy is widely unpopular in Illinois and is now being exposed for its arbitrary and unsystematic application.
This from an article by Mark Konkol, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who has written for the Daily Southtown and the Chicago Sun-Times:
As Illinoisans continue to struggle under the devastating economic shutdowns enacted in an attempt to slow the spread of spiking COVID-19 cases, it's become increasingly clear that Pritzker's reliance on "not scientific" coronavirus metrics that trigger the state's tiered pandemic mitigation restrictions have created a credibility crisis that the governor has struggled to overcome.
On Monday, for instance, Pritzker said the current statewide social distance restrictions — bans on indoor dining, high school sports and a de facto stay-home order — will remain in place even if regional coronavirus metrics dip below the statistical markers that his administration set for triggering industry-specific shutdowns.
"No region will be downgraded from our current Tier 3 mitigations for the next few weeks, even if they might be on track to meet those metrics. We are still very much in a precarious place, and we've got to take the time to evaluate any Thanksgiving effects before we make any premature adjustments," Pritzker said.
The governor said he's taking the commonsense advice of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's leading infectious disease expert, who told governors Monday that now isn't the time to roll back social distance restrictions.
But for a lot of people skeptical of the governor's metrics triggering social distance restrictions, setting aside the statistical standards dealt a critical blow to the credibility of his so-called "Restore Illinois" mitigation plan.
Anyone watching Pritzker’s press conferences hears the deterministic way with which he spouts unconfirmed science. When he uses fear-stoked scenarios (“do you want our hospitals to be overrun and the sick have nowhere to turn?” he said the other day. Oh please. Is this “The Walking Dead?”) people realize just how silly he sounds and tune out.
(I stopped watching the stream of the daily Covid updates…all the repetitive references to how awful we are as people in this state bummed me out)
Another thing—Election Day was last month. There won’t be one for Pritzker until November 2022. The Illinois General Assembly isn’t even talking right now. There is no one to combat him (except fed up citizens on social media) or hold him accountable for the absurdity of his actions.
Whatever Pritzker’s motivation for not revealing data metrics and instead using vague reasoning for his shutdowns, unless he decides to change course, there is no one to stop him.
I don’t see a path forward for basketball or football right now. Football is the most concerning as it is in the spring 2020-2021 season and scheduled to begin official practices in February 2021.
Searching for a ray of optimism amidst a gloomy sky?
It comes from Antioch head football coach Brian Glashagel. Coach Glas appeared on “The Jon and Joe Show” podcast I do every week with Joe Aguilar.
Here’s what Glashagel had to say when asked about the likelihood of a ‘spring’ football season being played in 2021:
The decision needs to be made by February 15 (2021) which the IHSA has identified as its start date. It’s just not solely about football. We need to back up and take a look. You’re talking about the distribution of a vaccine in this country by the end of December, however many millions by January. That’s optimism. You are looking at millions and millions of Americans being vaccinated.
I’m trusting the science and the doctors. They are saying this month is going to be the roughest, January will be as rough and will start to decrease…you are looking at post-January as a general decline in improvement. From that aspect, we will be in a much better place in a few months than we are now.
I agree with Glashagel in that the vaccine will greatly change the outlook of 2021. There is ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ as Dr. Fauci said earlier this week. But will it be fast enough for Pritzker and his public health footmen to flip labeling and allow for football?
No one knows. We can only go off of history and based on nine months of actions, Pritzker prefers annihilation over compromise.
I'm curious about something you wrote in your post I received today.
You said that Fauci is the only epidemiologist you implicitly trust ....... Are you serious?
Don't wear masks. Wear masks. Get vaccine, but will still need to mask up and social distance. Based on his advice, many governors closed a nation down for something that has a very high recovery rate. When has he ever been right about anything? (A reading of his background will reveal a track record which is iffy at best. -K.H.
This is good question from K.H and an appropriate one considering Fauci’s public speaking schedule.
The subscriber is referring to an article I published Tuesday.
No one has been interviewed more on Covid than Dr. Anthony Fauci. His life of relative anonymity ceased to exist when he first stepped up to the microphone in the White House Press Room in March and became the face of the federal government’s virus task force.
This instant fame is both a blessing and a curse for Fauci. The blessing part is the level of influence—when Fauci says something, people listen. His insights are discussed and debated and can change policy. Fauci knows this and takes the responsibility very seriously.
The curse part—every word he says is documented. He gets fact-checked and people expect him to be accurate every time with his predictions. He’s a scientist after all, and not just any scientist. He’s Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. And during a once in a century pandemic, experts on infectious diseases need to be right.
But were talking about science. And science is never exact (certainly not the study of a novel coronavirus). Scientists acknowledging what they doesn’t know is just as important, if not more, as acknowledging what they know to be true.
Fauci speaks a lot. When he says something in March (like mask-wearing is not vital to protection from the virus) and then changes course months later (that mask-wearing is important for mitigating spread after all) people say he was wrong. Sure, but that’s science!
(Can you imagine if Fauci had stepped on the podium in the WH Press Room in the first few days and weeks of the pandemic and said, ‘I’m not sure about the long term impact of mask-wearing. I can’t give a definitive answer at this time.’ He’d be crucified for not knowing. How can he not know…he’s a scientist after all!)
That’s what happens when scientists get interviewed hundreds and hundreds of times during an active pandemic. What they thought to be true in June may not be in October. But for almost every other scientist in the world, that change in belief, based on diligent research and collaboration with collegues, is made privately. For Fauci, every iteration is done publicly and with rapid scrutiny.
The reality is he’s been accurate about almost everything we now know to have happened. He predicted the fall surge of cases in late summer before anyone wanted to believe it. In June, he said the country would hit 100,000 cases per day. We have. Months ago, he said that “by the time we get to the end of this calendar year we will feel comfortable that we do have a safe and effective vaccine.” We do.
Predictions aside (and there are some that Fauci spoke of publicly that have not come true) my main reason for saying Fauci is the one doctor “I implicitly trust” is this—when he is giving an interview, and making often inexact forecasts on the future, he cares about pleasing no one.
No president. No political party. No special interest group. No lobbying organization. He’s a career scientist beholden to no one.
What he cares most about is following the data and its scientific conclusions that day.
The next day may be slightly different because that’s what happens with science.
Fauci will be the first to tell you that. He’s not hard to find.
This tweet contains the link to an article published by Mark Hoffman, Executive Director of the Washington Interscholastic Athletic Association.
I’d encourage reading the article as it makes arguments integral to the core of one of the more popular debates in The Year of the Virus.
Is it safe to play sports?
My answer: It’s safer than not playing.
Here’s an excerpt from the article:
We are fighting a disease we have never seen before and one we know little about. This fall, schools in Washington chose not to offer sports and activities in accordance with the Governor’s recommendation. At the time, we had little information on the risk of extracurricular activities in relation to COVID. Now, research from around the country allows us to make decisions based on real data.
The University of Wisconsin found that, in a sample of 30,000 high school athletes, only 271 COVID-19 cases were reported with 0.5% of those cases traced back to sports contact.
In New Jersey, EDP Soccer managed 10 youth soccer tournaments in the state as well as multiple soccer leagues along the East Coast. In approximately 318,500 games, no COVID-19 cases were attributed to participation.
Right here in Washington, Seattle United Soccer Club had 1,930 boys and girls participate in its programs this summer for two months of training. In total, two of those players contracted the virus and both of those came from community transmission, outside of sport.
These examples of students returning to sports are not meant to diminish the havoc and loss that this virus has caused. They are meant to show that if we work together and take the proper precautions, we can return to offering these once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. We know this because it has already been done. These are challenging times, absolutely, but there is no hiding from this pandemic.
We’ve heard the hesitancy among superintendents: “How can we offer athletics when we haven’t returned to in-person learning?” This is not a logistical question. It is a question regarding optics and politics. I understand the hesitancy based on the stance of their communities. However, we must focus on the values and interconnectivity of extracurricular activities.
Education-based sports and activities have always been a key component of our school system. We cannot eliminate one portion of a student’s education because we had to modify another. Aside from the inherent values that come with athletic and activity participation, students who compete in high school have shown to achieve higher grades, increase motivation and engagement, and improve the overall high school experience.
I’ve heard anecdotal evidence from our schools as well. Administrators in large school districts are reporting three times the number of students earning failing grades this year with all the challenges we face. Students are not attending on a regular basis or, in some cases, at all. This has been a difficult time for students, teachers and everyone working to educate our children. Returning to competition will not be a cure-all, but, in a time where students have become disconnected from their education, we know athletics and activities can help them re-engage.
How refreshing is it to hear an education leader speak so honestly about what is going on throughout this country? We don’t get any of that candor here in Illinois.
Hoffman writes about ‘anecdotal evidence’ and how not playing sports without in-person leaning is about ‘optics and politics’ and not logistics. His open letter is filled with wisdom, insight and intelligence.
During the interview with Brian Glashagel (a social studies teacher) referenced earlier in the mailbag, I asked him about ‘education-based’ sports:
I remember our superintendent, Jim McKay, started our institute day a year ago with a slide. The slide showed the correlation between kids in sports and the average GPA. When a kid is involved in sports, they perform better academically. They go hand-in-hand, you cannot separate the two. They are all part of the same educational process. It’s a holistic entity. It’s all tied together. When you are eliminating for some of these kids, that educational piece, that socialization piece, the fact they are dealing with adults, with role models, parental figures, some of their best friends, some of the best highlights from high school. That is a major blow to the educational process.
Listen here for the full interview. Worth your time.
A Saturday event I want to plug:
I’m hoping to get downtown in person and listen to a group of excellent speakers. All we hear from politicians, the mainstream media and righteous coronabros are how gatherings are ‘super spreaders’ and not ‘safe’ for the general public.
More than ever, we need the super spreading of rational thought and a marketplace of ideas. They’ll be plenty of both at the Daley Center Saturday afternoon.
One last thing…had to share this super cool photo:
It’s of a football player in the North Suburban Conference.
Talk about an awesome use of shop class…an example of when ingenuity meets work ethic (need a ‘bench’ so I can ‘press’…I’ll just make one!)
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend everybody.
Do you have tip/comment/suggestion for the Mailbag? Send to Jon and jon@jonjkerr.com.