California Recall: Why It Matters
Tuesday, millions of Californians decide whether to keep their governor. Why Illinoisans and others around the country should be watching.
(Photo Credit: SF Gate)
Today in California, the residents of that state are taking part in a most unusual vote.
In the state’s first recall election in almost two decades, millions are expected to cast ballots in deciding the fate of Governor Gavin Newsom.
The recall vote comes after a months-long process stemming from poor leadership by Newsom relating to Covid. Newsom, a Democrat first elected in 2018, could not convince school districts to re-open last year. Doubly, his wishy-washy decisions on vaccine distribution and overreaching stay-at-home lockdowns has angered conservative residents and party supporters alike.
Last November, photographs leaked of Newsom attending a dinner party at a Napa Valley resort while unmasked. Newsom apologized but the damage was done.
(Remember the crazy video of the paddle boarder who got arrested off the coast of Malibu for not leaving the water? That’s all under Newsom’s watch.)
The accumulation of transgressions leads to Tuesday’s recall vote in California.
In order for Newsom to be removed from office, he must fall shy of 50 percent of ballots cast. If he fails to get 50 percent, the opposing candidate with the highest percentage of votes is named the next governor.
Early projections have Newsom holding onto the governorship. According to fivethirtyeight.com, 56 percent of Californians want keep Newsom while 41 percent want him out.
But because this is a recall and not an election, forecast polling can be sketchy in legitimizing outcomes.
From fivethirtyeight.com:
This election isn’t usual, so some caution is warranted. This is a particularly challenging race to poll accurately because it’s hard to estimate who’s likely to vote. That’s due to two things in particular: the odd timing of the election (September of an odd-numbered year) and the fact that it is being conducted primarily by mail. In other words, don’t be surprised if there’s a larger-than-usual polling error.
Is it possible Newsom could be removed? Yes. Likely? No.
For the people in California, there is a lot at stake with Tuesday’s vote. They must live with the results and if the recall fails, with Newsom for at least another year (he is up for re-election in 2022).
For observers outside the state, impact of what happens Tuesday is largely in the abstract, but not insignificant.
Even if Newsom is not recalled, the amount of effort and expense that went into the recall campaign is enormous. Various projections say the recall effort will cost between $200-$400 million, paid for largely by taxpayers.
But based on pre-recall polling, the 40-plus percent of California residents desirous to rid themselves of Newsom are saying the cost is worth every penny.
Those millions of residents are sick and tired of government in Sacramento (where the state capital of California is located) telling them how they can conduct their businesses and lives based on a virus with a 0.00-0.03% mortality rate amongst children.
Sound familiar? Substitute Sacramento for Springfield.
Here in Illinois, there is no campaign to recall Gov. JB Pritzker. The process to do so in Illinois is more cumbersome than that of California, and any movement to unseat Pritzker would have had to happen a year ago in order to reach the conclusion of California’s recall efforts today.
The justifications for recalling Pritzker due to his limp Covid response match those of Newsom, and in many ways are more egregious — authoritarian leadership, unlawful use of executive power, unnecessary lockdowns of businesses at the outset of Covid, forced masking absent of scientific data, testing and vaccine coercion in schools, shutting down of youth sports and in general, an arrogance about decisions and unwillingness explain to citizens why their lives are being so heavily influenced by the ideology of one person.
Illinois is much like California in how it is a state controlled by one party, a dynamic that only emboldens autocrats like Pritzker and Newsom. Supermajorities in the state House and Senate allow for governing without two-party collaboration. This is the case with the Democratic Party in Illinois and California.
From the Orange County Register about California’s supermajority:
To place a constitutional amendment on the ballot through the Legislature, two- thirds of each house of the Legislature must vote to do so. The Democratic Party has 76.25 percent of the Assembly, and 72.5 percent of the Senate.
So, California Democratic leaders need no Republicans or Independents to place constitutional amendments on the ballot. Equally, Republican or independent members of the Legislature will have no chance of putting their own constitutional amendments forward. The constitutional amendment process is now a 100 percent Democratic Party affair.
The percentage of Democrats in the Assembly and Senate are not as high in Illinois, but reach the supermajority threshold (data from Ballotpedia):
HOUSE
73 of 118 seats (61.8%)
SENATE
41 of 59 seats (69.4%)
(Illinois requires three-fifths for a veto-proof supermajority)
Illinois is one of six states with supermajorities after the 2020 election cycle. The others are Hawaii, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and as stated earlier, California.
If we follow the data, we see what can happen during a public heath crisis when states are ruled by one party, more specifically, the Democratic Party.
Tuesday, the voters of California are holding their governor accountable for his actions during Covid.
Regardless of the outcome, that’s what the recall is truly about.
And why Illinoisans, and any residents of blue state supermajorities, should care.
Newsom ruined businesses, kept children and their parents locked in their homes, ordered forced masking and flaunted his executive power by not following his own orders.
(And he removed a paddle boarder from the ocean because…the boarder could spread Covid across the seas? We have to keep the jellyfish safe! That might be the most absurd Covid-related incident of all time, certainly Top 5.)
Pritzker has pulled the same stunts as Newsom in Illinois.
Earlier this summer he said one thing — local control to school districts — then changed his mind once school board meetings turned into First Amendment symposiums and things became too politically untenable. When faced with resistance from school districts, their unions and lawyers, he ordered his sycophant agencies to threaten expulsion, bullying those who questioned him into submission.
These are not the acts of an elected governor of a state. They are the actions of a drunk-on-power tyrant.
A tyrant with no checks on that power, no one to tell him or her they are behaving not in the best interests of their citizenry, but rather in service of egocentric grandiloquence.
So Tuesday, Illinoisans should be watching with strong interest in what goes down in California. The result matters less than the process.
When unhappy with governance, speaking truth to power remains in the hands of the people.
So use it.
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